Decision analysis

Preference has a unique methodology for analyzing complex decision situations. The company possesses unique mathematical algorithms for analyzing large systems of alternatives, consequences and criteria, based on more than twenty man-years of research and development.

The groundbreaking research behind Preference products enables a capability of handling uncertain parameters in the decision process as well as handling situations where all decision parameters are not known. There is also no need to extract numerically precise data to evaluate a decision problem; instead basic estimates are often sufficient and if not, this is highlighted. This often leads to substantial savings, due to increased decision quality and time efficiency.

The algorithms and their use within risk and decision analysis are subject of an approved US Patent No. 11/145229 owned by Preference. The software suit contains an implementation of these decision algorithms in different ways, addressing specific needs, and is proprietary to Preference.

Risk management

Preference Risk Library  (PRL) is a software that efficiently analyzes operational risks for both individual and aggregated risks. The tool can also evaluate the effectiveness of mitigations to reduce the cost of risk and probabilities of risks to occur.

There is a general lack of efficient methods to manage and quantify risks today beyond the usual risk management ending with a risk assessment, no method to quantify the risk to real money.  As a result of increased global competition today, Businesses often are forced to deal with  Risks that they previously could transport to their clients.

Preference applies both formal computable methods and conducting more qualitative studies to analyze and identify the risks associated with different activities. We have performed a direct or indirect risk analyzes for many large organizations, both in order to be included as a component of decision analysis or independent risk analysis. In some cases, the risk analysis part of a decision analytic process of decision under risk where it is important to avoid unwanted risks.

News

Procurement

Market Procurement governed by the Public Procurement Act (PPA) but also other procurements.

Public procurement in Sweden has annual sales of between 16 and 18 percent of our gross domestic product. It is in part a consequence of a pro forma comprehensive EU legislation. The ambition behind the procurement idea is good. It aims to increase the efficiency and dynamism of the internal free EU market and to avoid corruption effects and some other things.
There are fundamental problems with the models normally used in procurement situations.
Many wrong decisions can be linked to the method of evaluating the bids. The shortcomings in the management of three running points. i) It introduces excessive precision. ii) to handle qualitative values in a clumsily way. III) and to manage value scales without much insight.
Competition Authority review of a large number of Swedish procurement demonstrates an unfortunate plethora of models and applied to one and the same contract gives the show the different results. Sometimes the outcome is the same, sometimes not. The choice of suppliers is therefore often incorrect.

Preference solutions derives from research in analytical decision support that can be used for a better, more efficient and transparent procurement process

Training

Preference offers training that promotes decision quality and more structured decision-making in any business or organization.

Learn structured decision making.

Our courses present methods and processes that work in your organization and everyday life. You will learn, among other things: Learn the components of a structured decision work Methods to improve decision making What are the factors that primarily affect the company’s decision competence How a structured approach to major decisions can become part of the corporate culture

We have a set of courses, normally two days, as can be held at the customer, but we can also provide tailor made training for specific requirements. In Sweden we have a scheduled training program, more information is available (in Swedish) on the Decision Academy’s website:  www.beslutsakademien.se

Big data analysis

Do you manage Big Data?

How rational is your business decisions?

Need a complete picture of your business risks?

With today’s large data sets it is not enough to collect data and present them in a nice way, the amount of data will make this impossible to use as a base for decisions.

Today we can handle huge volumes of data but we still need a systematic approach in order to evaluate those large volumes. If you just hand over to the systems you will most probably end up with findings as: “Avoid hospitals, that is the pace where most people die”.

You need a better plan, a well thought out decision process will give an overview which information is vital for a specific decision. An overview of business risks save big money by pointing out what needs to be addressed.

Preference has:

  • over 30 years of combined research experience in analytical decision support
  • tools and methods for rational decisions
  • excellence in terms of big data, decision-making procedures and risk management
  • market leading methods of aggregating business risks to get an overview of the company’s entire risk profile
  • experience of having helped several of Sweden’s best-known companies, both established and new hot technology companies.